Before the Russian-backed hack of Hillary Clinton’s campaign emails during the 2016 presidential elections, prior to the Russian-aided bot armies that spread fake news, and previous to the Russian-supported hack of the Democratic National Committee, there was one country that Moscow used to test its digital operations: Ukraine.

In 2014, the Russian government’s disinformation campaign in Ukraine sent the country into a vortex of fake news, cyberattacks and digital upheaval. Today, Russia may be back.

As Ukraine prepares for its 2019 parliamentary elections, the United States government is warning that Kiev may come under attack again. Ukraine’s upcoming Constitution Day could spark a rise in malicious cyber activity, the Department of Homeland Security announced June 21.

DHS recommended “organizations remain vigilant and aware of potential malicious cyber activity ahead of upcoming national holidays,” and singled out the June 28 celebration in Ukraine.

“Cyber campaigns — such as NotPetya — are examples of increasingly advanced threat actor activity,” the department warned, referring to a series of malware attacks that the U.S. attributes to Moscow.

For network administrators, the department recommended segregating networks and functions, limiting unnecessary lateral communications, securing access to infrastructure devices, and validating systems.

But the Russian-backed cyberattacks may require more than stronger digital hygiene, according to General Curtis Scaparrottii, America’s top military commander in Europe. As Russian hackers have continued their attacks on Ukraine, Scaparrottii testified before Congress that the U.S. is not doing enough to combat Moscow’s digital fighting.

“We just don’t have the focus and the energy that I think we are capable of … in order to deter this [Russian] disinformation campaign that is going on,” he said on March 15.

A history of aggression

After a wave of demonstrations broke out in Ukraine in 2013, the country’s pro-Russia president, Viktor Yanukovych, fled the country. A new government was formed in Ukraine, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin lashed out. With lightning speed and military force, Putin annexed the Ukrainian area of Crimea.

A campaign of disinformation began, according to Jen Weedon, a former researcher with the firm FireEye, in a book on Russian information warfare in Ukraine. There was an alleged Russian-backed digital attack on Ukrainian TV stations, news outlets and politicians. There was the raiding of Ukraine’s fiber optic cables. And there was the outright shutdown of the Ukrainian government’s website in late 2015.

“In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, computer network operations have not been limited to trite notions of ‘cyber war.’ Rather, an examination of the sustained tensions suggests that this has been a war waged with and by the strategic theft and manipulation of information,” wrote Weedon.

During last year’s Independence Day, which takes place August 24, hackers allegedly tried to compromise a Ukrainian software developer, according to Cisco.

In the past year there have been fewer overall hacks on Ukraine, but they have become more damaging, said Roman Boyarchuk, a top cyber official in Ukraine, according to the Kyiv Post. “What we are now witnessing is the lull before the storm. We are preparing for new attacks from our northern aggressor … first these technologies were rolled in Ukraine, then applied in other countries. The same thing happens with cyberattacks.”

According to the Department of National Intelligence’s 2018 threat assessment, the U.S. expects “that Russia will conduct bolder and more disruptive cyber operations during the next year, most likely using new capabilities against Ukraine.”

U.S. lawmakers have taken note.

In mid-June, Victoria Nuland, who served as America’s top diplomat to Europe during the Obama administration, warned Congress about Russian disinformation campaigns.

Nuland has firsthand experience.

A leaked telephone call posted to YouTube in 2014 revealed Nuland said “f--- the E.U.” in regards to Ukraine’s political crisis. The State Department called it “a new low in Russian tradecraft.”

“Ukraine was a test case for many of these tactics we saw in our own elections,” said Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., during recent testimony. “Ambassador Nuland was a firsthand witness to the weaponization of leaks.”

About Justin Lynch

Justin Lynch is the Associate Editor at Fifth Domain. He has written for the New Yorker, the Associated Press, Foreign Policy, the Atlantic, and others. Follow him on Twitter @just1nlynch.

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